Recently, the Census Bureau released data on the components of population change for metropolitan areas in the United States. Between July 2023 and July 2024, the population of the Washington metropolitan area grew at a rate of 14.3 per 1,000 people. This means that for every 1,000 residents in the region, the population increased by approximately 14 people. This growth rate exceeded the average population growth rate of 10.4 per 1,000 people in higher-cost metro areas, but it remained below the average rate of 19.0 per 1,000 people in lower-cost metro areas.[1]
Differences in domestic migration rates between higher- and lower- cost metro areas are more striking. As the chart above shows, between July 2023 and July 2024, people generally moved into lower-cost metro areas, while moving out of higher-cost metro areas. While the Washington metro area outperformed most other higher-cost metros, the region still lost 3.6 per 1,000 people to domestic outmigration, meaning that more people left the Washington metro area than moved to it.
These broad patterns of domestic migration represent a continuation of past trends. During the COVID-19 pandemic, lower-cost metro areas experienced substantial domestic in-migration, while higher-cost metro areas experienced population strain due to domestic out-migration. Given that people are still moving to lower-cost metro areas post-pandemic, the ongoing trend highlights the need for higher-cost metro areas to address the drivers of high living costs—such as housing—to remain competitive.
[1] This piece updates and draws on Daniel Burge, “Chart of the week: Between 2022 and 2023, population growth in lower-cost metro areas outpaced D.C. and other pricier metro areas,” D.C. Policy Center, April 5, 2024. For the higher- and lower- cost metro areas scheme, the author was inspired by Bailey McConnell, “What do migration and labor force trends tell us about D.C. and other large, high-cost metro areas?,” D.C. Policy Center, October 5, 2022. McConnell followed Stephen Whitaker, “Migrants from High-Cost, Large Metro Areas during the COVID-19 Pandemic, Their Destinations, and How Many Could Follow,” March 25, 2021, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.