On December 19, 2024, the United States Census Bureau released its population estimates for 2024. The data show that the District’s population increased from 687,324 people in 2023 to 702,250 people in 2024—an increase of 2.2 percent. The District’s population grew at the fastest rate in the country–more than twice the rate of the nation as a whole.[1]
Migration fueled the District’s population growth. The gains from migration resulted from increasing international immigration and, to a lesser extent, a slowing of domestic outmigration. Between July 2023 and July 2024, the District’s international migration rate increased from 15 to 18 per 1,000 people. And while domestic migration continued to improve, it still modestly hindered the District’s population growth. In 2023, 2,580 people left the District. This domestic outmigration translated to a rate of almost 4 per 1,000 people. In 2024, 337 people left the District, resulting in a domestic outmigration rate of 0.5 per 1,000 people. Despite the improvement, 2024 marks the fourth consecutive year in which the District has, on net, lost residents due to domestic migration.
Natural change (births minus deaths) also contributed to the District’s population increase. Births fell by 315, while deaths decreased by 50. As a result of these declines, the District experienced a somewhat slower rate of natural change—declining from over 4 per 1,000 people in 2023 to just under 4 per 1,000 people in 2024. This decline suggests a decrease in the number of residents starting families in the District.
An important feature of the 2024 population data is the revised estimates for previous years.[2] The most notable revisions concern the District’s international migration estimates –which reflect the Census Bureau’s updated methodology for estimating international migration. The international migration estimate for 2023 serves as an illustrative example. Previously, the Census estimated that 6,969 people from abroad came to the District in 2023. Now, the Census estimates this number to be 10,320 – a 48 percent increase from the previous estimate.
Revisions were not limited to international migration estimates. The previous Census estimates indicated that the District lost 28,452 residents due to domestic outmigration between 2020 and 2023.[3] The current Census estimates place this number marginally higher—28,993. This revision underscores the negative effect that the COVID-19 pandemic has had on the District’s potential population growth.
All in all, the recent population data is mixed for the District. While three years of accelerating population growth is a positive sign, the District’s rate of natural change and domestic migration remain areas of concern.
Data notes
The Vintage 2024 data (current estimates) can be found here. The Vintage 2023 data (previous estimates) can be found here. All data is from the Census Bureau.
[1]The author was inspired by a previous Chart of the Week on the 2023 population data.
[2] Given the possibility of future revisions, the estimates in this piece should be considered preliminary.
[3] The domestic migration total was calculated by adding the domestic migration estimates for 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023.